Mainland China expat enrolment dropped materially across 2020 to 2022 with the COVID period and the broader corporate posting reduction. Recovery from 2023 has been partial and uneven across cities.
The post-2022 shift
Mainland China expat enrolment dropped materially across 2020 to 2022 with the COVID period and the broader corporate posting reduction. Recovery from 2023 has been partial and uneven across cities.
Shanghai
Shanghai enrolment has substantially recovered but not fully returned to 2019 levels. SAS, Concordia and BISS have manageable waitlists at most year groups. Newer schools have absorbed some of the demand.
Beijing
Beijing enrolment recovery has been slower than Shanghai. ISB, Western Academy of Beijing and Dulwich Beijing have shorter waitlists than pre-2020.
Shenzhen and Guangzhou
These markets continue to grow modestly, driven by tech-sector expansion and proximity to Hong Kong. The school market has remained tight at the premium tier.
What this means for relocating families
Year-group spaces are more available than during the 2018-2019 peak, especially at upper secondary. Apply early but expect a more responsive admissions experience than in the pre-COVID years.