In this guide
What a predicted grade is
An IB predicted grade is the teacher's professional estimate of the final mark a student will earn in each Diploma subject when the May or November examinations are sat. It is expressed on the standard one to seven scale, summed across the six subjects, plus the bonus points awarded for Theory of Knowledge and the Extended Essay. A complete prediction is therefore six subject scores from one to seven, plus a bonus matrix entry, producing a forecast total out of 45.
Predicted grades are not aspirational. The IB asks subject teachers to use all the evidence at hand, internal assessments, mock examinations, classwork, attendance and any externally moderated tasks, to set a figure they genuinely believe the student will achieve. Schools that systematically inflate predictions damage their relationship with universities and, more importantly, harm the next year's cohort, whose predictions are then discounted. The strongest IB schools maintain prediction accuracy within one point of the final diploma score and protect that record carefully.
Who sets predicted grades and how
Each subject teacher submits a predicted grade for each student. The Diploma coordinator collates the six subject predictions and the bonus points estimate, reviews them in a moderation meeting with the senior leadership team, and submits the consolidated set to the IB and to the relevant university application portals (UCAS for the UK, the Common App for the US, individual systems for Australia, the Netherlands, Ireland and elsewhere).
The evidence base behind each subject prediction is reasonably standard across IB schools. Teachers weigh the internal assessment mark (which the IB itself moderates and which carries between twenty and forty per cent of the final grade depending on the subject), the mock examination result, the trajectory across the previous year, and any externally referenced tasks the school has run. Stronger schools also calibrate predictions across teachers in the same department, so that the chemistry prediction for one student is not systematically higher than the equivalent biology prediction for another. Weaker schools leave predictions to individual teachers without departmental moderation, and the inconsistency shows up in university admissions.
When predictions are issued and updated
The application year for Northern Hemisphere IB schools runs from September of Year 13 (the second Diploma year) to April of the same school year. Indicative predictions are usually shared with families by the end of Year 12 to support the university shortlist. UCAS predictions are submitted in October. Common App predictions are submitted as part of the school report in November and updated through the regular and early action windows. The IB itself receives the formal predicted grades by 20 April, three to four weeks before the May examinations begin.
Predictions evolve through the year. The October prediction reflects Year 12 internal assessments and the September mock. The January prediction incorporates the December or January mock examinations, which are typically the strongest single signal of the final outcome. The April prediction is the last opportunity to adjust and is the figure the IB and most universities ultimately read. Southern Hemisphere schools run the equivalent cycle six months offset, with the November examinations and the corresponding earlier prediction window.
Free IB Diploma planner
Our IB Diploma planner covers the Higher Level decision matrix, the Theory of Knowledge essay timeline, the Extended Essay subject choice analysis and the predicted grades sequence used by the top universities. Use the compare tool to put up to three IB schools side by side on cohort size, average diploma score and prediction accuracy. Talk to our team for a personal shortlist review.
What universities actually do with them
Different university systems treat predicted grades differently. UK universities through UCAS read predictions as the central admissions signal at offer stage. Oxford, Cambridge, Imperial and LSE typically require 38 to 42 predicted points with specific Higher Level conditions; offers are conditional on the student achieving the predicted figure, or close to it, in the May examinations. The wider Russell Group typically asks for 32 to 37 predicted points. Predictions below the published entry threshold rarely lead to interview invitations even when the student's wider profile is strong. The Russell Group recognition of the IB piece covers the offer ranges in detail.
US universities, by contrast, weight the predicted grade as one input among many. The Common App school report includes the predicted diploma score, the school's grade distribution context, and the counsellor's narrative; admissions officers read these against the SAT or ACT result, the essays, the recommendation letters, the activities portfolio and any subject specific Advanced Placement results the student has also taken. A predicted 38 with a strong essay and supporting profile can earn admission at universities that nominally publish higher thresholds. The Ivy League and the leading US privates typically expect 38 plus with strong Higher Levels (7s and 6s) before the wider review begins.
Continental European universities, particularly in the Netherlands, Germany, Ireland and the Nordic states, generally convert predicted grades into national admissions points cleanly. Dutch numerus fixus programmes (medicine, psychology, some economics tracks) use predicted scores to allocate the limited places in a lottery weighted by academic profile. Irish CAO conversion treats the IB diploma as fully equivalent to the Leaving Certificate at published conversion rates. Australian universities convert via the Australian Tertiary Admission Rank using a standard IB to ATAR table.
How accurate predicted grades are
The honest answer is that IB predicted grades over predict the final result on average, by one to three points across the system. The IB itself publishes prediction accuracy data each year, and the long term picture is consistent: schools tend to err on the optimistic side, students tend to underperform predictions by a small margin, and the gap is largest in the schools whose internal moderation processes are weakest.
The dispersion matters more than the average. The strongest IB schools (typically those with cohort sizes above forty, stable senior leadership and a culture of departmental moderation) predict within plus or minus one point of the final outcome more than seventy per cent of the time. The weakest IB schools predict within that band less than forty per cent of the time, with a long tail of three to five point over predictions that trigger university offer rescissions when the May results land in early July.
| Prediction band | Typical final outcome | What this signals about the school |
|---|---|---|
| Within 1 point | Prediction reliable | Strong departmental moderation; trustworthy reference |
| 1 to 2 points over | Student finishes 1 to 2 below | Average IB school; UK offers typically held |
| 3 plus points over | Student misses offer significantly | Weak moderation; risk of UK offer rescission |
| Under prediction | Student exceeds prediction | Conservative culture; rare but it happens |
When a predicted grade looks low
The phone call from your child after the January mocks usually has a familiar shape. The mathematics or chemistry prediction has dropped a point, the consolidated total is now four or five below the Oxford or LSE offer, and the conversation in the kitchen suddenly turns to whether the offer is now out of reach. Before reacting, parents should understand three things.
First, January is not April. The mocks are designed to be slightly harder than the live papers because they are a teaching tool as much as a forecasting tool. Strong IB schools tell families this in advance; less honest ones let parents draw the conclusion themselves. A January prediction at 36 often becomes an April prediction at 38 or 39 if the student kicks on through the spring revision cycle. Second, the conditional offer is on the final result, not the prediction. A student predicted 36 who achieves 39 in May will still meet a 38 point conditional offer; the prediction is not the binding figure.
Third, the predicted figure is sometimes wrong on its own terms. If the internal assessment mark has just been moderated upwards by the IB, if the externally moderated coursework has come back strong, or if the mock paper was set unusually hard (these things happen), there is a case for asking the subject teacher to review the prediction in light of the new evidence. Most strong IB schools welcome that conversation; it is the parental advocacy that matters in the late application window.
What parents can usefully do
Three things, mostly. First, read the prediction in context. The IB publishes school average diploma scores; the strongest predictor of your child's final result is the school's track record at predicting accurately, not the absolute number that arrives in October. Use the school finder tool to compare schools on diploma outcomes and prediction reliability before you commit to a campus.
Second, support the calibration. If the school does run a structured prediction moderation process, ask to see the timetable. Mock results, internal assessment moderation outcomes, externally referenced task results and the subject by subject prediction review are all reasonable things to understand. The conversation with the Diploma coordinator at the end of Year 12, before the UCAS predictions are submitted, is the single most useful meeting of the application year.
Third, protect the wider strategy. UCAS allows five choices; the IB student should have a sensible mix of aspirational, target and insurance offers calibrated on the realistic prediction, not the hoped for one. If the predictions land lower than expected, the right response is to refine the choice list, not to lobby the school to inflate the figure. Inflated predictions damage the next cohort and harm the school's credibility with the universities your younger children may apply to in turn.
For the longer view on how the Diploma is structured and what makes a strong programme, see the IB curriculum explained guide and the IB curriculum hub. The internal assessment guide covers the coursework component that feeds directly into the prediction.
Related guides
- The IB curriculum explained
- How the Russell Group treats IB applicants
- IB internal assessment: a parent's guide
Frequently asked questions
When are IB predicted grades issued?
For Northern Hemisphere schools the formal predicted grades are submitted to the IB by 20 April of the final examination year. Schools share them with UCAS and other application portals from September of Year 13, refining the figures as mock results come in across the autumn and winter.
Are IB predicted grades binding?
No. Predicted grades guide university offers but do not determine final results. Students can outperform or underperform their predictions in the May or November examinations. Universities convert offers into firm decisions only on the basis of the actual diploma score.
How accurate are IB predicted grades?
On average IB predicted grades over predict the final diploma by one to three points, with wide variation between schools. The strongest IB schools predict within one point of the eventual outcome; weaker schools systematically over predict by three points or more, which then triggers university offer rescissions when results arrive.
Can a predicted grade be changed?
Yes, until the formal April submission. Schools update predictions when mock examinations and internal assessments arrive. After the April submission to the IB, predictions are locked, although universities continue to read the school's reference and any updated context provided in the conditional offer process.