What this guide covers
- What an IB predicted grade is
- How teachers arrive at a prediction
- Why predictions and finals diverge
- What universities do with predictions
- Planning around the gap
- Frequently asked questions
What an IB predicted grade is
A predicted grade is a subject teacher's professional estimate of the grade a candidate is likely to achieve in the final Diploma Programme examinations. Schools submit these predictions to the International Baccalaureate, and they are also shared with universities through the application system while a student is still studying. Because most university offers for Diploma students are made months before the May or November results, predicted grades are the currency that admissions teams use to decide whom to make an offer to.
Each subject carries a predicted grade on the one to seven scale, and the core points from the Extended Essay and Theory of Knowledge are predicted too, so a full predicted profile mirrors the shape of a final diploma. The prediction is a forecast, not a mark already banked, and that distinction sits at the heart of everything that follows.
How teachers arrive at a prediction
Teachers build a prediction from the evidence in front of them: internal assessment marks, mock examination performance, class assessments, coursework drafts and their long experience of how candidates at a given standard tend to finish. A good prediction weighs the trajectory of a student rather than a single data point, because a strong mock after a weak term tells a different story from the reverse. Schools are asked to make predictions aspirational but realistic, since a prediction that is wildly optimistic can set a student up for a conditional offer they cannot meet.
Predictions are made without knowing that session's grade boundaries, which are only set after the papers are marked. That alone introduces uncertainty, because a teacher is estimating a final grade whose boundary has not yet been fixed. It is one reason two students with similar classwork can be predicted the same grade yet finish a mark apart.
Prediction is a forecast, not a floor
A predicted grade never appears on the final certificate and does not set a minimum for the real result. If a final grade lands below the boundary a place depends on, our guide to how IB grade boundaries are set explains why, and the IB curriculum hub gives wider context on the programme.
Why predictions and finals diverge
Study after study of predicted grades, across the IB and other qualifications, finds the same pattern: predictions tend to run higher than the grades actually achieved. The reasons are structural rather than a failing of individual teachers. Predictions are made with incomplete information, they naturally lean towards a student's potential, and they cannot anticipate how a particular paper will behave on the day. Examination performance also carries a normal amount of variation that no forecast can remove, so even an accurate teacher will see some students exceed a prediction and others fall short.
The practical consequence is that a meaningful share of candidates finish a little below their predicted total, a smaller share match it, and some exceed it. Families do best to treat a prediction as an encouraging target that reflects genuine potential, while planning for the possibility that the final result lands one or two points either side.
What universities do with predictions
Universities use predicted grades to decide whether to make an offer and to set its conditions, but the offer itself is almost always conditional on the final achieved grades. This is the crucial point for families. A generous prediction can win an offer, yet the place is only secured when the real results meet the stated conditions. Admissions teams are well aware that predictions tend to be optimistic, and many build that knowledge into how they read an application, which is part of why offers are often pitched close to, rather than above, a realistic final outcome.
Some highly selective courses look closely at internal assessment marks and the overall profile rather than the headline predicted total alone, so consistency across subjects can matter as much as the top line. A balanced profile that a school can defend tends to travel better than a single stretch prediction propping up an otherwise modest set.
Planning around the gap
The sensible response to the predicted grade gap is to plan for the final result, not the forecast. Choose a firm and an insurance university choice whose conditions sit at different points, so a result slightly below prediction still leads somewhere good. Keep mock preparation serious, because mocks feed the prediction and rehearse the real thing. And treat results day as the moment that counts, with a clear plan for what to do if the final grades land above, on, or below the conditions of an offer. Where a single subject grade sitting just under a boundary blocks a place, an Enquiry Upon Results re mark can have the marking checked. Read calmly, a prediction is a useful signal, but the achieved grade is the only one that ends up on the certificate.
Frequently asked questions
What is an IB predicted grade?
It is the grade a subject teacher expects a candidate to achieve in the final examinations, submitted to the IB and shared with universities during the application cycle before the actual results are issued.
Are IB predicted grades usually higher than final grades?
Research into predicted grades across qualifications consistently finds they are optimistic, so a sizeable share of candidates finish a little below their prediction. Treat a prediction as an encouraging target rather than a guarantee.
Can a predicted grade be changed?
A school can revise a prediction before the deadline if new evidence, such as a strong mock result, justifies it. Once results are published the predicted grade no longer matters and the achieved grade takes over.
What happens if I miss my predicted grades?
A conditional university offer is based on final grades, not predictions, so missing a prediction only matters if it means missing the offer conditions. If that happens, clearing, adjustment or an Enquiry Upon Results re mark may be options.